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LearningStrategyDecisions

Start Simple

What is the simplest approach that would teach me whether the core idea works?

Use this when sophisticated approaches are available before the basic problem is understood.

You’ll be able to choose a simple baseline that reveals whether added complexity earns its place.

The idea

Technical sophistication and problem-solving value are different. A simple model can isolate assumptions, create a baseline and expose where complexity is actually needed.

Worked example · illustrative

Trying a meal plan before paying for an app

Situation. You keep throwing away groceries that never get used. You’re thinking about paying for an app that tracks what’s in the kitchen and plans your meals, but you’re not sure why so much food is going to waste.

The tempting conclusion. An app that organizes everything should help us waste less.

What changes the view. You could try planning three dinners on paper and checking the fridge before shopping for a couple of weeks. If less food ends up in the bin, planning meals around what you buy seems to help. If plans keep falling apart because everyone gets home at different times, tracking more ingredients might not be what you need.

What this supports. The app might still be useful, but you’d have a better idea of what you want it to help with. Maybe the paper plan is enough, or maybe it’s hard to keep everyone’s plans in one place. A couple of weeks won’t tell you how this works through every busy spell, but it could give you a useful start before paying for more features.

Useful when

Trying a new routineTesting an ideaPlanning a pilotDeciding whether added complexity is needed

Watch for

Simplicity is a starting strategy, not a belief that simple solutions are always sufficient.

Where this came from

Quantitative research, Machine learning

Related tools

Explore, Then ExploitComplementsLook Before You ModelComplementsSolve the Constrained ProblemComplements

Read the reasoning

Quantitative Research and Machine LearningPrimary post · May 26, 2024From NeurIPS to the Real World: Key Takeaways from Competing in PommermanSupporting post · Jun 26, 2024