The Shape of the Evidence
What would I expect to see around this result if my explanation were actually right?
From: Quantitative trading, Machine learningToolbox
A collection of reusable lenses for unclear decisions. Start with a problem, or explore ideas gathered from research, startups, trading, mentoring, games, and other places.
What are you dealing with?
What Did the Metric Throw Away?
Could information removed by this metric change the decision?
From: ML evaluation, Product workLook at the Boundary
What might be visible from the other domain that isn't visible from mine?
From: Startups, Engineering, Parenting, Knowledge-boundary researchChange the Representation
Is this actually small, or does it only look small in the representation I'm using?
From: Engineering, Product workFrom Intuition to Argument
What exactly is my intuition noticing, and why does it matter to this decision?
From: Research, Startups, Technical judgmentDecision-Complete
Can I construct a defensible path from the evidence to the decision?
From: Academic research ā applied R&DPreserve the Option
What does this decision make possible or impossible afterward?
From: Startups, Research and development, Star TrekTwo Clocks
What happens to the decision while Iām waiting?
From: StartupsExplore, Then Exploit
Do I know where the gains are likely to be, or am I already optimizing one path?
From: Applied machine learning, ResearchLook Before You Model
What can I learn about the problem before choosing the solution?
From: Applied machine learningStart Simple
What is the simplest approach that would teach me whether the core idea works?
From: Quantitative research, Machine learningThe Right Level of Reasoning
How much strategic reasoning does the evidence justify here?
From: Game theory, Multi-agent learning, The Prestige, SuccessionStart With a Hypothesis
What did I expect to observe before I saw the result?
From: Quantitative research, Finance, Machine learningSolve the Constrained Problem
What solution works under the constraints that actually exist?
From: Pommerman, Competitions, Applied machine learningProductive Struggle
Will helping now improve the immediate outcome but reduce the learning?
From: Mentoring, SupervisionRaise the Resolution of Feedback
Have I made the work concrete enough for someone to give me the kind of feedback I want?
From: PhD supervision, Internships, WritingNo tools match both filters. Try another problem or source.