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EvidenceDecisions

What Did the Metric Throw Away?

Could information removed by this metric change the decision?

Situation

A metric appears to give a clear answer, but observations or experience don't quite agree.

The idea

Metrics are compression. They can be perfectly correct while excluding distinctions that matter to the actual decision.

Useful when

Model evaluationKPIsaveragesrankingsperformance comparisons

Watch for

Don't respond by measuring everything. Missing information matters only if it could alter the decision.

Where this came from

ML evaluation, Product work

Lineage

Pommerman's distinction between training reward and winning developed into asking which decision-relevant information a metric removes.

Read the reasoning

The Metric Can Be Right and the Decision Can Still Be WrongPrimary post · Sep 25, 2026From NeurIPS to the Real World: Key Takeaways from Competing in PommermanSupporting post · Jun 26, 2024