The Right Level of Reasoning
How much strategic reasoning does the evidence justify here?
Situation
Several explanations for someone's behavior seem plausible, ranging from ordinary circumstances to deliberate strategic interaction.
The idea
More sophisticated explanations of other people's behavior are not necessarily more accurate. Useful reasoning moves between simple and strategic models as the evidence warrants; another observation may distinguish them better than another layer of speculation.
Useful when
Watch for
Neither simplicity nor sophistication proves an explanation correct. Avoid assuming hidden motives without evidence, but do not dismiss strategic behavior when observations support it.
Where this came from
Game theory, Multi-agent learning, The Prestige, Succession
Example
A customer says they are interested but stops replying. Before constructing a bargaining explanation, ask whether they will schedule a concrete next meeting. Their response provides evidence, even if it does not establish their motive.
Lineage
Draws on research into how learning agents model other agents, using The Prestige and Succession to illustrate the risks of both excessive and insufficient strategic reasoning.