Pablo Hernandez Leal
StrategyDecisionsTiming

Position Before You Know

What can I do now that leaves me well positioned for the next states that matter?

Use this when the next state is uncertain, but waiting to see what happens may leave too little time to respond.

You’ll be able to identify a useful preparation you can make before the next development becomes clear.

The idea

Positioning is selective preparation for the transitions that matter, not an attempt to stay ready for every future. It can be worth accepting a cost in the current state to avoid being badly placed after an important change. As information arrives, preparation should give way to commitment.

Worked example · illustrative

Preparing an event before the forecast settles

Situation. You are arranging a small outdoor gathering. The forecast is uncertain, and deciding everything on the morning of the event would leave too little preparation time. An indoor room is available but needs organizing.

The tempting conclusion. Either commit to outdoors now or postpone all preparation until the weather is clear.

What changes the view. Some work is useful in either setting: choosing portable food, confirming attendance, and arranging movable seating. Clearing the indoor room costs effort now but protects against a consequential change in weather. Preparing elaborate decorations for both settings would add little protection for its cost.

What this supports. Do the shared preparation and keep a workable rain plan. Set a decision time before guests travel, then commit to one location when the forecast is useful enough. Positioning is active preparation for important possibilities; continuing to prepare both venues after choosing would waste effort.

Useful when

Preparing for a project to change direction after an experimentAllocating capacity before customer demand is clearDeciding which failure transitions deserve protectionChoosing when to stop preparing and commit

Watch for

Preparing for too many futures can spread resources too thin. Reassess the position as information arrives, and commit when preparation no longer justifies its cost.

Where this came from

Football

Related tools

Preserve the OptionComplementsTwo ClocksComplements

Read the reasoning

Position Before You KnowPrimary post · Oct 5, 2026